> On Jul 29, 3:57 pm, jonathan23 <campb...@yahoo.ca> wrote:
> > South deals, the auction is 1NT-P-3NT (well, it was a set hand so > > there wasn't really an auction, but this one will do)
> > A107 > > 986 > > K973 > > K94
> > 963 > > AK4 > > AQ10 > > Q652
> > Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > > plan?
> South deals, the auction is 1NT-P-3NT (well, it was a set hand so > there wasn't really an auction, but this one will do)
> A107 > 986 > K973 > K94
> 963 > AK4 > AQ10 > Q652
> Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > plan?
One easy way: play LHO for Ax in clubs.
Alternative: Play LHO for a doubleton club which are among J,10,8,7. Problem is, after say club, 8, cover, J, a spade back establishes tricks and incidentally leaves the diamonds blocked. Cashing diamonds first solves the second problem but enhances the first if LHO follows high indicating say Qx of spades. On the other hand with three suits to indicate the signaling rules are not clear, and RHO might discard helpfully for me.
Clyde Love said always run winners, so I'll take three diamonds, lead a club, and cover RHO's card. If RHO wins maybe win a heart return, play another club, and later finesse a club spot.
If LHO has J108 of clubs I'll do badly: club x,10,K,A, then x,J,unblock 9,x, then finesse into the singleton 8 for down 3. If the first club goes x,J,K,x there are wheels within wheels. Straightforward is to duck the next round completely catering to AJ alone and chances against J10 alone, but looking foolish against J8 doubleton.
> South deals, the auction is 1NT-P-3NT (well, it was a set hand so > there wasn't really an auction, but this one will do)
> A107 > 986 > K973 > K94
> 963 > AK4 > AQ10 > Q652
> Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > plan?
> I can post the EW hands after.
> Thanks,
> -- > - Jon Campbell > Ottawa Canada
You actually have 8 top tricks because the KQ of clubs is worth a trick, so you are really only in need of 1 more trick.
Given that East has discarded the 7 of clubs and that diamonds are 6=0 in the two hands, I consider it unlikely that clubs are Ax behind the king. (Would East really discard the 7 of clubs from the JT73?) Instead, I'm pretty confident that East has the AJT73 and that clubs are 1=5 in the two hands.
In that case, I can establish a tenace position in clubs by leading a club to the King, so my plan is to run diamonds, establish a tenace position in clubs, and endplay either opponents with the 3rd round of hearts. East must be 3=5=0=5 and West must be 2=4=6=1. My line:
Trick 1: Diamond, small, club 7, diamond T Trick 2: Diamond A, small, small, pitch Trick 3: Diamond K, small, small, pitch Trick 4: Club 2, 8, K, Ace Trick 5: Spade, spade, spade, duck. Note that a heart allows me to lead a club to the 9 to establish the tenace while preserving the ace of spades as an entry to the diamond K and for the club finesse, so East has to return the spade to threaten the entry position Trick 6: Spade, spade, spade, duck Trick 7: Spade, spade, spade, Ace Trick 8: Club 9, Ten, duck, diamond (?) Trick 9: Heart, A, small, small Trick 10: KH, small, small, small Trick 11: heart, heart, heart, heart
And whoever wins the trick will be endplayed.
Note that it doesn't matter what East pitches at tricks 2 and 3 because he has to come down to Jx of clubs in the end (else I cash the QC and win the 6 at trick 12), so East has to come down the a singleton heart and the Jx of clubs.
If East is 4=4=0=5, West can defeat the hand by coming down to Hx in hearts and a singleton diamond (and if East is 5=3=0=5 the same would apply), so I think that East has to be 3=5=0=5 for me to have a legitimate shot at making the hand.
One (very) small point in favor of this line is that if clubs are 1=5 with a singleton Ace in West, then the hand is a laydown for 3nt.
> On Jul 29, 7:57 am, jonathan23 <campb...@yahoo.ca> wrote:
> > South deals, the auction is 1NT-P-3NT (well, it was a set hand so > > there wasn't really an auction, but this one will do)
> > A107 > > 986 > > K973 > > K94
> > 963 > > AK4 > > AQ10 > > Q652
> > Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > > plan?
> > I can post the EW hands after.
> > Thanks,
> > -- > > - Jon Campbell > > Ottawa Canada
> You actually have 8 top tricks because the KQ of clubs is worth a > trick, so you are really only in need of 1 more trick.
> Given that East has discarded the 7 of clubs and that diamonds are 6=0 > in the two hands, I consider it unlikely that clubs are Ax behind the > king. (Would East really discard the 7 of clubs from the JT73?) > Instead, I'm pretty confident that East has the AJT73 and that clubs > are 1=5 in the two hands.
> In that case, I can establish a tenace position in clubs by leading a > club to the King, so my plan is to run diamonds, establish a tenace > position in clubs, and endplay either opponents with the 3rd round of > hearts. East must be 3=5=0=5 and West must be 2=4=6=1. My line:
> Trick 1: Diamond, small, club 7, diamond T > Trick 2: Diamond A, small, small, pitch > Trick 3: Diamond K, small, small, pitch > Trick 4: Club 2, 8, K, Ace > Trick 5: Spade, spade, spade, duck. Note that a heart allows me to > lead a club to the 9 to establish the tenace while preserving the ace > of spades as an entry to the diamond K and for the club finesse, so > East has to return the spade to threaten the entry position > Trick 6: Spade, spade, spade, duck > Trick 7: Spade, spade, spade, Ace > Trick 8: Club 9, Ten, duck, diamond (?) > Trick 9: Heart, A, small, small > Trick 10: KH, small, small, small > Trick 11: heart, heart, heart, heart
> And whoever wins the trick will be endplayed.
> Note that it doesn't matter what East pitches at tricks 2 and 3 > because he has to come down to Jx of clubs in the end (else I cash the > QC and win the 6 at trick 12), so East has to come down the a > singleton heart and the Jx of clubs.
> If East is 4=4=0=5, West can defeat the hand by coming down to Hx in > hearts and a singleton diamond (and if East is 5=3=0=5 the same would > apply), so I think that East has to be 3=5=0=5 for me to have a > legitimate shot at making the hand.
> One (very) small point in favor of this line is that if clubs are 1=5 > with a singleton Ace in West, then the hand is a laydown for 3nt.
> Henrysun909- Hide quoted text -
> - Show quoted text -
You didn't take your 4th diamond? Or did I not read this correctly...
> On Jul 29, 7:57 am, jonathan23 <campb...@yahoo.ca> wrote:
> > South deals, the auction is 1NT-P-3NT (well, it was a set hand so > > there wasn't really an auction, but this one will do)
> > A107 > > 986 > > K973 > > K94
> > 963 > > AK4 > > AQ10 > > Q652
> > Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > > plan?
> > I can post the EW hands after.
> > Thanks,
> > -- > > - Jon Campbell > > Ottawa Canada
> You actually have 8 top tricks because the KQ of clubs is worth a > trick, so you are really only in need of 1 more trick.
> Given that East has discarded the 7 of clubs and that diamonds are 6=0 > in the two hands, I consider it unlikely that clubs are Ax behind the > king. (Would East really discard the 7 of clubs from the JT73?)
No. Would I give a line of play without learning what East discarded? Yes.
> Instead, I'm pretty confident that East has the AJT73 and that clubs > are 1=5 in the two hands.
The club 7 pitch from AJ1073 isn't very smart either. Probably East has AJ1087(x).
> In that case, I can establish a tenace position in clubs by leading a > club to the King, so my plan is to run diamonds, establish a tenace > position in clubs, and endplay either opponents with the 3rd round of > hearts. East must be 3=5=0=5 and West must be 2=4=6=1.
If that's the distribution then we're ok without the tricky club plays, provided that East has two spade honors or the defense is inexact.
The general plan is to win three diamonds, duck spades twice, win a spade and diamond in dummy, low club to the Q, then exit with a heart to score the club King.
That depends on East retaining only one heart winner. If East discards differently we can play differently. 1. If East ever discards a spade, then we only need to duck spades once and hence can afford to lose two hearts (or if 2 spade discards, no spade duck and can lose 3 hearts). 2. If East discards two clubs on the first 3 diamonds, we can begin clubs immediately and duck no spades. 3. If East discards a club and two hearts and West rises on the first spade and exits a diamond, then we cannot let West in again. That's when the distribution of the spade honors becomes important.
> South deals, the auction is 1NT-P-3NT (well, it was a set hand so > there wasn't really an auction, but this one will do)
> A107 > 986 > K973 > K94
> 963 > AK4 > AQ10 > Q652
> Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > plan?
> I can post the EW hands after.
> Thanks,
> -- > - Jon Campbell > Ottawa Canada
Assuming the C7 discard at trick 1 is not an error, LHO cannot hold a high club. It seems right to take 2 more diamonds, then to finesse a spade (duck if LHO plays an honor). Your aim is to put RHO on lead and force a club lead from the Ace without losing more than 3 tricks in the majors. If your card reading is accurate, you should prevail unless RHO is 4-4-0-5 or worse with no five card major, and even then sometime. Since you will have seen at least 3 discards before you need to make any critical decisions, you should be able to get it right quite often.
Trick 1: Diamond, small, club 7, diamond T Trick 2: Diamond A, small, small, pitch Trick 3: Diamond K, small, small, pitch Trick 4: Club 2, 8, K, Ace--LOSER Trick 5: Spade, spade, spade, duck. LOSER Note that a heart allows me to lead a club to the 9 to establish the tenace while preserving the ace of spades as an entry to the diamond K and for the club finesse, so East has to return the spade to threaten the entry position Trick 6: Spade, spade, spade, duck LOSER Trick 7: Spade, spade, spade, Ace Trick 8: Club 9, Ten, duck, diamond (?)LOSER Trick 9: Heart, A, small, small Trick 10: KH, small, small, small Trick 11: heart, heart, heart, heart LOSER
So at trick 12 you've already lost 2 Cs, 2 Ss and a H? Am I reading this correctly?
> On Jul 29, 10:57 am, "henrysun...@yahoo.com" <henrysun...@yahoo.com> > wrote:
> > On Jul 29, 7:57 am, jonathan23 <campb...@yahoo.ca> wrote:
> > > South deals, the auction is 1NT-P-3NT (well, it was a set hand so > > > there wasn't really an auction, but this one will do)
> > > A107 > > > 986 > > > K973 > > > K94
> > > 963 > > > AK4 > > > AQ10 > > > Q652
> > > Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > > > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > > > plan?
> > > I can post the EW hands after.
> > > Thanks,
> > > -- > > > - Jon Campbell > > > Ottawa Canada
> > You actually have 8 top tricks because the KQ of clubs is worth a > > trick, so you are really only in need of 1 more trick.
> > Given that East has discarded the 7 of clubs and that diamonds are 6=0 > > in the two hands, I consider it unlikely that clubs are Ax behind the > > king. (Would East really discard the 7 of clubs from the JT73?)
> No. Would I give a line of play without learning what East discarded? > Yes.
> > Instead, I'm pretty confident that East has the AJT73 and that clubs > > are 1=5 in the two hands.
> The club 7 pitch from AJ1073 isn't very smart either. Probably East > has AJ1087(x).
> > In that case, I can establish a tenace position in clubs by leading a > > club to the King, so my plan is to run diamonds, establish a tenace > > position in clubs, and endplay either opponents with the 3rd round of > > hearts. East must be 3=5=0=5 and West must be 2=4=6=1.
> If that's the distribution then we're ok without the tricky club > plays, provided that East has two spade honors or the defense is > inexact.
> The general plan is to win three diamonds, duck spades twice, win a > spade and diamond in dummy, low club to the Q, then exit with a heart > to score the club King.
> That depends on East retaining only one heart winner. If East discards > differently we can play differently. > 1. If East ever discards a spade, then we only need to duck spades > once and hence can afford to lose two hearts (or if 2 spade discards, > no spade duck and can lose 3 hearts). > 2. If East discards two clubs on the first 3 diamonds, we can begin > clubs immediately and duck no spades. > 3. If East discards a club and two hearts and West rises on the first > spade and exits a diamond, then we cannot let West in again. That's > when the distribution of the spade honors becomes important.
> Charles
If you assume that East has at least Axxx in clubs and 5 cards in hearts you can always endplay East, provided you guess his original distribution correctly. There are no further assumptions you need to make except that West has not KQJx(x) in spades, almost a certainty on the lead. Play diamonds to trick 2 and 3. If East has less than 4 cards in club left, play on clubs and establish 2 tricks in clubs Otherwise after 3 tricks East can have at most 6 cards in the majors left, of which at least three must be hearts. Duck as many spades as necessary before cashing the ace of spades, so that East has no more spades left. Finally endplay East in hearts. Assume West has 2 spade honors. If West rises on the first spade, duck. West exits with a diamond. Win in dummy and play a club from the table. East has to duck. Win with the queen and finesse against West remaining spade honor.
> Trick 1: Diamond, small, club 7, diamond T > Trick 2: Diamond A, small, small, pitch > Trick 3: Diamond K, small, small, pitch > Trick 4: Club 2, 8, K, Ace--LOSER > Trick 5: Spade, spade, spade, duck. LOSER Note that a heart allows me to > lead a club to the 9 to establish the tenace while preserving the ace > of spades as an entry to the diamond K and for the club finesse, so > East has to return the spade to threaten the entry position > Trick 6: Spade, spade, spade, duck LOSER > Trick 7: Spade, spade, spade, Ace > Trick 8: Club 9, Ten, duck, diamond (?)LOSER > Trick 9: Heart, A, small, small > Trick 10: KH, small, small, small > Trick 11: heart, heart, heart, heart LOSER
> So at trick 12 you've already lost 2 Cs, 2 Ss and a H? > Am I reading this correctly?
> Regards and Happy Trails,
> Scott Needham > Boulder, Colorado, USA
You are right. I can only afford to duck 1 round of spades, which means that RHO has to be 2=6=0=5 for this line to work.
So perhaps the line I've chosen is sub optimal. Ah well, it wouldn't be the first time rofl.
> On Jul 29, 3:53 pm, "S. Needham" <jsn_color...@comcast.net> wrote: >> Trick 1: Diamond, small, club 7, diamond T >> Trick 2: Diamond A, small, small, pitch >> Trick 3: Diamond K, small, small, pitch >> Trick 4: Club 2, 8, K, Ace--LOSER >> Trick 5: Spade, spade, spade, duck. LOSER Note that a heart allows me >> to >> lead a club to the 9 to establish the tenace while preserving the ace >> of spades as an entry to the diamond K and for the club finesse, so >> East has to return the spade to threaten the entry position >> Trick 6: Spade, spade, spade, duck LOSER >> Trick 7: Spade, spade, spade, Ace >> Trick 8: Club 9, Ten, duck, diamond (?)LOSER >> Trick 9: Heart, A, small, small >> Trick 10: KH, small, small, small >> Trick 11: heart, heart, heart, heart LOSER
>> So at trick 12 you've already lost 2 Cs, 2 Ss and a H? >> Am I reading this correctly?
>> Regards and Happy Trails,
>> Scott Needham >> Boulder, Colorado, USA
> You are right. I can only afford to duck 1 round of spades, which > means that RHO has to be 2=6=0=5 for this line to work.
> So perhaps the line I've chosen is sub optimal. Ah well, it wouldn't > be the first time rofl.
> Henrysun909
Maybe the planning gets a bit flakey when you start by designating Kxxx - Qxx as " top trick" ?
On Jul 29, 10:57 am, jonathan23 <campb...@yahoo.ca> wrote:
> South deals, the auction is 1NT-P-3NT (well, it was a set hand so > there wasn't really an auction, but this one will do)
> A107 > 986 > K973 > K94
KJ Q8542 1073 QJ52 J86542 --- 83 AJ107
> 963 > AK4 > AQ10 > Q652
> Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > plan?
I didn't count a top trick in clubs as the lead must be given up to take it and I'm not sure where trick nine is coming from yet. Of course, you can get a ninth trick after the C7 is discarded by east at trick one through attrition in that suit. Not sure if that makes the club discard a clear error (and then what would be a better discard by East, a spade?).
> On Jul 29, 10:57 am, jonathan23 <campb...@yahoo.ca> wrote:
> > South deals, the auction is 1NT-P-3NT (well, it was a set hand so > > there wasn't really an auction, but this one will do)
> > A107 > > 986 > > K973 > > K94
> KJ Q8542 > 1073 QJ52 > J86542 --- > 83 AJ107
> > 963 > > AK4 > > AQ10 > > Q652
> > Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > > plan?
> I didn't count a top trick in clubs as the lead must be given up to > take it and I'm not sure where trick nine is coming from yet. Of > course, you can get a ninth trick after the C7 is discarded by east at > trick one through attrition in that suit. Not sure if that makes the > club discard a clear error (and then what would be a better discard by > East, a spade?).
> -- > - Jon Campbell > Ottawa Canada
Sorry but your analysis is wrong. . Declarer has no way to go if East has spade length and keeps at least four of them. The discard of the C7 does not hurt either The defense simply establishes three spade tricks before declarer can establish a second club trick. If declarer cashes diamonds East can afford to let a spade and a heart go.
> > > Opening lead - D5. East shows out on the first trick, so you can see > > > seven top tricks. Do you think you can find two more? What's your > > > plan?
> > I didn't count a top trick in clubs as the lead must be given up to > > take it and I'm not sure where trick nine is coming from yet. Of > > course, you can get a ninth trick after the C7 is discarded by east at > > trick one through attrition in that suit. Not sure if that makes the > > club discard a clear error (and then what would be a better discard by > > East, a spade?).
> > -- > > - Jon Campbell > > Ottawa Canada
> Sorry but your analysis is wrong. . > Declarer has no way to go if East has spade length and keeps at least > four of them. The discard of the C7 does not hurt either > The defense simply establishes three spade tricks before declarer can > establish a second club trick. > If declarer cashes diamonds East can afford to let a spade and a > heart go.
> Rainer Herrmann
You're right - there's no way to win the race for the last trick unless you get help from the opponents.
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